IN FOCUS

War in Ukraine: Day 15
By Padmashree Anandhan and Ashwin Dhanabalan

War on the ground:
Airstrikes and evacuation
On 09 March, 35,000 civilians were evacuated from Ukrainian cities during the 12-hour ceasefire. The UN also mentioned that 2.2 million people had fled Ukraine until now. Most of the evacuees are in Poland, the evacuation of Ukrainians has been called the exodus of Europe's fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II. Also, two women and a 13-year-old boy were killed over night during the bombing of Velyka Pysarivka village near the city of Sumy.

On 10 March, As reported by The Guardian: "Western officials have warned of their "serious concern" that Vladimir Putin could use chemical weapons on Kyiv." The claims were made as Russia attacked a maternity and children's hospital and the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed its use of the TOS-1A weapon system in Ukraine. 

Also, on 10 March, diplomats of Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey's city of Antalya. Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also participated in the discussion as Russian and Ukrainian delegates met at the sidelines of a diplomatic forum. This is the first high-level meeting since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. 

On the same day, the Mayor of Mariupol said 1,207 civilians were killed in Russia's siege of the port city. The Red Cross assessing the situation, said it seemed apocalyptic as the city was repeatedly under attack and there were no safe routes, water, power, or heat. Fear is also mounting on the Ukrainian people as they suspect a possible encirclement of Kyiv and its imminent invasion. This comes as Russia placed its tanks just a few kilometres away from the city limits. 

The Moscow view:
Claims by Russia 
On 09 March, Russia's President Vladimir Putin held a telephone conversation with Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz regarding the special military operations to protect the Donbas region. The two leaders also discussed the possibilities of political-diplomatic efforts, and the negotiations held between Moscow and Kyiv were discussed. Putin further talked about the humanitarian corridors, the diminishing situation and civilian evacuation. 

On 10 March, The Moscow Times reported on the Western companies' exodus from Russia and its implication on the people's livelihood. The news agency summarised: "The business departures are already blowing holes in the Russian economy and are expected to leave thousands of workers unemployed in what could become the country's worst economic crisis since the end of the Soviet Union." In addition, the move had directly impacted the Russian currency of the Ruble. 

On the same day, as the Ruble collapsed, prices in Russia rose at their fastest rate in more than two decades. Russia experienced a weekly inflation rate of 2.2 per cent between 26 February and 04 March. Economists suggest that the commodities' annual prices will surpass 20 per cent by the end of March 2022. Moscow did respond to the price rise by implementing economic contraction methods of increasing the interest rates to 20 per cent. However, that has not stopped the highly volatile market from stabilizing. 

Moscow, on 10 March, announced that it would no longer participate in the Council of Europe. The Russian Foreign Ministry said: "since EU and NATO countries that are unfriendly to Russia continue their policy towards destroying the organisation and the common humanitarian and legal space in Europe." The statements came as a response to Russia feeling that the situation was becoming irreversible because of NATO, the EU, and a collective West as they wanted to impose a rules-based order. At the same time, Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko discussed the situation near the Chernobyl nuclear plant over a telephone call on 09 March. Lukashenko then directed Belarusian specialists to provide the necessary logistical and energy support needed by the plant. 

On 10 March, as reported by TASS, "As of the morning of 10 March, more than 213,000 people crossed the border of the Russian Federation, and more than 185,000 of them arrived in Russia from the DPR and LPR." This is one of the initial reports by sources that give a number of Ukrainian evacuees leaving the country and taking refuge in Russia. 

On 10 March, in response to the backlash Russia faced for launching an airstrike on a maternity and children's hospital, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov defended the claims and said the hospital served as a military base. He further said: "This maternity hospital has long been occupied by the Azov Battalion and other radicals. They drove out the women in labour, nurses and general staff. It was the base of the ultra-radical Azov Battalion."

The West view:
Responses from the US and Europe

On 10 March, the EU leaders gathered at France for the summit to discuss on reducing the dependency on Russian energy, and strengthening political support for Ukraine. European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, said: “At this summit we will rethink European defence with strong capabilities. We will rethink energy. We will also certainly discuss Ukraine as part of our European family. We want a free and democratic Ukraine with whom we share a common destiny.”

On 10 March, During the visit of the US Vice President Kamala Harris to Poland vowed that the US will stand committed with NATO as per article 5 and announced US donation to World Food Programme of the UN.

On 10 March, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki warned that there are possibilities for Russia to launch attacks using biological weapons or chemicals or will try to carry out a similar fake operation. The US has also given an estimation of 5000 to 6000 Russian troops to have died in past weeks of war. Apart from the estimation, the US lawmakers approved the plan to give USD 13.6 billion as an emergency aid to Ukraine.

On 10 March, the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines accused that the approach of Russian forces has “reckless disregard” on civilians as it faces strong resistance from the Ukraine. The Director said: “The Russian military has begun to loosen its rules of engagement to achieve their military objectives.” Haines who is the main intelligence adviser to Biden said that the intelligence was tracking Russia’s actions to document evidence, so as to hold responsible of government and individual for actions against civilians.

On 10 March, the UK released a military intelligence brief revealing the Russian deployment of conscript troops and observed the decreased activity of Russian air operations over Ukraine. It also confirmed that 5000 Russian troops to have destroyed so far.

In recent days the influx of refugees has been more than expected and the UK has been facing the challenge in dealing the surge in refugees, hence one of the UK visa offices were found to have apologised to the entrants on its inability to assist in visa process. Upon the discussion with security services, the UK Home Secretary announced the shift in its visa programme to virtual to board in the eligible Ukrainians through plane, train and boat after email confirmation. Although the shift was made instant, it has faced criticism as it will facilitate all Ukrainians, UK Prime Minister explained that UK was taking cautions due to doubt on people to be armed or entering using fake identity.

Role of International Organisations
On 10 March, UN Secretary General António Guterres accused Russia for bombing the hospital facility in Mariupol despite an agreed ceasefire.

On 10 March, IMF authorized USD 1.4 billion as an emergency fund to Ukraine. It was given to support the immediate balance of payment needs. It also promised to help Ukraine design a “economic programme” to bring back growth. The IMF Managing Director said: “Once the war is over and a proper damage assessment can be performed, additional large support is likely to be needed to support reconstruction efforts.”

Implications of the war: The global fallout
From Africa, the IMF Chief remarked that the food security and fuel availability situation was worsening in Africa due to Russian invasion. The war has impacted the prices of the food commodities, reduced revenues from tourism and accessing financial service have become difficult. He added: “At this difficult moment, the Fund stands ready to help African countries reduce the cost of any needed policy adjustments through policy advice, capacity development, and lending.” Apart from this, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met Putin to talk on boosting cooperation and developments in Ukraine.

From South America, six countries have put forth a proposal to United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to sanction Russia. Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay have decided to exclude importing fertilizer from Russia as part of the sanction. According to Brazil's Agriculture Minister, said that Brazil being the top most importer of fertilizers must not be target of sanctions. Good imported from Russia such as NPK fertilizer, and beef have been affected due to the war in Ukraine.

On 10 March, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to discuss on the alliance and growing complexity in the international. The Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen to be supporting Putin since the invasion and accusing the NATO and the US for invoking crisis in Ukraine.

From China, the effect of speedy inflation in the US and European Central Bank’s aiming for higher rates has resulted in de-listing of Chinese stocks in the US thereby pushing sellers to Chinese equity markets. It is believed that the war in Ukraine will further the inflation, increasing prices of oil and other commodities. On the other hand, China has denied supply of airplane parts to Russia, the reason are unknown, but Russia will set out to reach to Turkey and India for the same.

From India, Jindal Steel and Power Ltd (SPL) fifth largest producer of crude steel has said that the demand arising from the fall of supply of Steel due to the Ukraine war can benefit in shooting up the exports to 40 per cent. It projected that, it used to export 25 per cent of steel and is currently reaching the 35-40 per cent margin. Industry analysts predict that Indian and Chinese steel industries will see hike in production to supply the gaps in European market.

From Israel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will give speech in Israel Parliament on Russian invasion, which is seen as part of his agenda to gain support from international through video briefings.

From Global industries, the impact of the war is observed to be affecting the mass earning of the global companies due to rise in oil price, raw material cost and crush in profits in current year. In the start of 2022 analysts expected an 8.9 per cent boost in the earnings due to the change of scenario it estimates 2.8 per cent decline in forward earnings for European companies, 0.45 per cent in Asian companies and 0.02 per cent in the US firms. Apart from this, Rio Tinto, a metals and mining giant has announced to suspend commercial business with Russia, but the Rio executive stated that it will be very challenging for the company to survive without the imports from Russia. At the same time, Caterpillar and John Deere which are big construction equipment companies has also announced their suspension of business in Russia due to supply chain disruption challenges.

References: 

“BBC live”, BBC, 10 March 2022

Gaurav Dogra “Global companies' earnings estimates hit by Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Reuters, 10 March 2022

Roberto Samora, “South American nations push to exclude fertilizer from Russia sanctions,” Reuters, 10 March 2022

Dan Williams, “Zelenskiy to address Israeli parliament, asks to speak to Holocaust centre,” Reuters, 10 March 2022

"Telephone conversation with Federal Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz," Kremlin.ru, 09 March 2022

James Beardsworth, "Western Companies' Exodus from Russia Leaves Thousands of Russians' Livelihoods on the Line," The Moscow Times, 10 March 2022

"Russian Prices Rising Fastest in 24 Years on Ruble Collapse," The Moscow Times, 10 March 2022

"Talks between Russian, Ukrainian top diplomats begin in Antalya," TASS, 10 March 2022

"Lukashenko, Putin discuss situation near Chernobyl nuclear plant over phone — BelTA," TASS, 10 March 2022

"Russia to cease participation in Council of Europe, Foreign Ministry says," TASS, 10 March 2022

"Source reveals how many Donbass and Ukraine evacuees took refuge in Russia," TASS, 10 March 2022

"Kremlin Defers to Russian Military on Deadly Mariupol Hospital Attack," TASS, 10 March 2022

"West has 'serious concern' Putin could use chemical weapons in Kyiv," The Guardian, 10 March 2022

"Britain Says Russian Defense Ministry Admits Using Thermobaric Weapons In Ukraine," Radio Free Europe, 10 March 2022

"More than 40,000 civilians were evacuated from across Ukraine on Wednesday but authorities struggled to get people away from conflict zones around the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol," The Guardian, 10 March 2022

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine: List of key events from day 15," Al Jazeera, 10 March 2022

IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews

FRANCE
Corsica: Protests over assault of nationalist figure lead to clashes with police 
On 10 March, France24 reported Corsica to have witnessed violent clashes between protesters and police. The clash was triggered after locals were angered by the assault of nationalist figure Yvan Colonna in prison. Colonna, who was captured in 2003 for the 1998 assassination of the Mediterranean island's top regional official Claude Erignac, is serving a life sentence. After being assaulted by a fellow prisoner on 02 March, Colonna is now in a coma. Some of the citizens in Corsica who consider Colonna as a "hero in a fight for independence" were disappointed by the incident and protested in Ajaccio, Calvi and Bastia. The protests quickly took a violent turn with demonstrators clashing with the police force. Colonna had requested to be moved to Corsica from his south of France detainment, however, this was denied as his offence made him a "special status detainee". On 08 March, Prime Minister Jean Castex did away with the status to reduce the situation from escalating. Meanwhile, French prosecutors charged Colonna’s assailant with attempted murder. (“Corsica protests turn to riots over assault of jailed nationalist Yvan Colonna,” France24, 10 March 2022) 

DENMARK
Prime Minister Frederiksen apologizes to Greenlandic Inuits separated from families for social experiment 70 years ago
On 10 March, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen directly apologized to Greenlandic Inuits’ group. Frederiksen addressed the six surviving members of the group and said: “What you were subjected to was terrible. It was inhumane. It was unfair. And it was heartless… We can take responsibility and do the only thing that is fair, in my eyes: to say sorry to you for what happened.” 22 Inuit children, ranging from five to eight years, were separated from their families and shipped to Copenhagen in 1950 as a part of an experiment to create a Danish-speaking elite. Although the parents were promised their return, they were never brought back to their original families. An inquiry into the impact of the experiment on the childrens’ lives concluded that most of them were negatively affected by the same. According to the Inuits’ lawyer Mads Pramming, the written apology followed by the financial compensation of NOK 250,000 was in itself  “a big success”. Prammings added: “... and now they will have a face-to-face.” (“Denmark PM says sorry to Greenland Inuits taken for 'heartless' social experiment,” The Guardian,10  March 2022)  

RUSSIA
Ukraine: Kremlin admits use of conscripts in invasion
On 09 March, the Kremlin’s Defense Ministry admitted to having deployed Russian conscripts into Ukraine. This followed repeated denials by President Vladimir Putin of having conscripts in the war. In a statement released by the Ministry, it said: “Unfortunately, we have discovered several facts of the presence of conscripts in units taking part in the special military operation in Ukraine. Practically all such soldiers have been pulled out to Russia.” Following the 24 February Russian invasion into Ukraine, mothers of those soldiers doing compulsory military service lost contact with their sons. This raised the possibility of Russia using conscripts. Meanwhile, the Defense Ministry has announced the launch of an investigation to penalize those who used conscripts, allegedly disobeying orders. (“Russia admits to use of conscripts in Ukraine invasion — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 09 March 2022) 

REGIONAL
European Parliament votes in favour of banning ‘golden passports’ to Russians
On 09 March, the European Parliament members voted in favour of banning the ‘golden passport' schemes to Russians. The non-binding vote intends to bring an end to the purchase of citizenship that allowed for “oligarchs and corrupt politicians to buy their way into Europe” by 2025. The Parliament saw 595 members voting in favour of the ban, 12 voting against while 74 members abstained from voting altogether. The European Parliament hopes to increase the background checks for the procedure as well. The European Commission will now decide on how to implement the proposal leading to the EU’s national government concluding on the same. According to the Netherlands’ MEP Sophie In't Veldt: “The time of asking national governments nicely is over… [We need] the total complete abolition of this procedure, not simply to reduce it but to completely eliminate it.” (Jack Parrock, “EU parliament demands end to 'golden passports' for Russians,” Deutsche Welle, 09 March 2022) 

Ukraine: German Catholic Bishops' Conference comments on Russian invasion
On 09 March, German Catholic bishops attended the annual spring plenary of the German Bishops' Conference. Concerned about the situation in Ukraine, Bishop Bertram Meier of Augsburg expressed: “We value human rights and civic freedoms, we stand for the common security of states and the exchange between them on the basis of binding and fair rules. All of this is under attack with the invasion of Ukraine.” He called on Europe to be defended, allowing people to “live in free democracies”. Meier also justified Pope Francis for his unwillingness to denounce Russian actions, stating that he was clear on wanting the fighting to stop without picking sides. (“Russia admits to use of conscripts in Ukraine invasion — as it happened,” Deutsche Welle, 09 March 2022) 

Ukraine: Lithuania changes Russian embassy’s address to “Ukrainian Heroes’ Street”
On 09 March, Vilnius Mayor Remigijus Simasius announced that the Russian embassy had a new address called the “Ukrainian Heroes’ Street”. This move follows Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Simasius said: “From today, the business card of every employee of the Russian embassy will be decorated with a note honouring Ukraine’s fighting, and everyone will have to think about the atrocities of the Russian regime against the peaceful Ukrainian nation when writing this street name. ” Lithuania has used such name changing tactics in the past as well to condemn Russian aggression. The week prior to 09 March, Latvia also had taken to a similar move by renaming the Russian embassy’s address to “Independent Ukraine Street”. (“Lithuania names road leading to Russian embassy 'Ukrainian Heroes' Street',” The Guardian, 10 March 2022) 

COVID-19 
Austria: Vaccine mandate to be suspended until further notice 
On 09 March, Austria's government announced that it would be suspending its COVID-19 vaccine mandate. Seeking an expert commission's advice, the mandate will be suspended and the situation will be reviewed after three months. Previously, the government required all adults to be inoculated against the virus; the lack of inoculation was to be penalized with EUR 3,600 from mid-March. Austria had become the country to declare a vaccine mandate amidst a devastating outbreak of the pandemic in November 2021. (Douglas Busvine, “Austria suspends coronavirus vaccine mandate,” POLITICO, 09 March 2022)